With diesel prices reaching record levels this week, small trucking operations are feeling the most pressure to survive in a trucking market that’s just beginning to find its footing.
Historically, fuel prices are not the highest they’ve ever been when adjusted for inflation, but it’s the unpredictability in current markets due to the ongoing wars in Iraq and Ukraine that is having the most impact on smaller carriers. Their contracts often don’t provide fuel surcharge formulas or they simply can’t absorb the added costs due to the limited size and scale of their operations.
Feeling the Squeeze at the Pump
Woody Daw, an independent driver with Majestic Manor Trucking of Atmore, Ala. says he is spending more than $3,000 a week to fuel one truck, a blunt measure of how record diesel prices are pressuring Alabama’s smallest motor carriers.
Daw told WEAR-TV that he hauls stone, dirt and some agricultural products across Alabama, Florida, Mississippi and Georgia. He said diesel near $6 a gallon has left the operation barely breaking even. His weekly fuel bill and a mix of work mean margins can be especially sensitive to distance, empty miles and delays.
How a Ten-Cent Diesel Increase Hits the Bottom Line
For instance, for a truck consuming 500 gallons in a week, every 10-cent increase adds $50 before any other operating cost changes. A $1 increase adds $500. Whether a carrier recovers that increase depends on its contracts, fuel-surcharge formula and how quickly the surcharge resets.
That distinction is important for small fleets and owner-operators. Fuel is generally paid for immediately, while customer rates or surcharges may adjust later.
Operators working on spot rates, fixed-price jobs or short-haul construction and agricultural loads may have less protection than fleets with formal surcharge schedules.
Another driver, Billy Barrington, told Decatur’s WHNT that rising fuel costs have made it difficult to bring money home. “It is impacting a lot because about a year ago, I was an owner-operator, and I was basically only making money to keep the truck running. I wasn’t bringing any money home. I just hope these gas prices come down some.”
EIA Raises Oil-Price Forecasts Amid Middle East Disruptions
The market outlook also became more difficult this week when the U.S. Energy Information Administration raised its oil-price forecasts as global petroleum inventories decline amid disruptions to Middle Eastern production and exports. Reuters reported that EIA now expects Brent crude to average about $91 a barrel in 2026, nearly 5% above its previous forecast.
EIA estimates that roughly 400 million barrels have been drawn from global inventories this year and expects stocks to continue falling through the end of 2026.
The agency does not forecast that every retail diesel increase will be permanent, but its revised outlook indicates that fleets should not build budgets around a quick return to inexpensive fuel.
What Alabama Carriers Should Watch Going Forward
For Alabama carriers, the immediate management questions are more practical than geopolitical: which loads still cover variable costs, how much surcharge lag the company can finance, whether fuel-card credit remains sufficient and when an unprofitable lane should be rejected.
Daw’s work also points to sectors worth watching closely. Stone and dirt hauling can involve substantial idle time and relatively low loaded mileage, while agricultural work may be seasonal and time-sensitive. Both can leave limited room to absorb a fast fuel increase.
A sustained price shock can also affect maintenance and replacement decisions. A carrier using cash to buy fuel may defer nonurgent repairs, extend trade cycles or operate with less working-capital cushion. Those decisions can outlast the original price spike.
Daw told WEAR that he is trying to hold on. His experience does not establish conditions for every Alabama carrier, but it offers a useful starting point for measuring how much of the record price is being recovered—and how much is being absorbed by the person who owns the truck.
